Roma v Real Madrid: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 7. Both teams scored. We made Roma or Draw 72%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

Roma host Real Madrid at the Stadio Olimpico in a Champions League group match that could shift the balance of the table. Roma sit 22nd of 36 with a single point from one game and a neutral goal difference. One place above them, Sabah FK sit two points clear, while Shakhtar Donetsk sit just below with no points separating them. Real Madrid sit 16th, also on three points from one game but with a +1 goal difference. Liverpool sit one spot above them on equal points, and AEK Athens sit just below on the same tally. Both clubs are only a few places from the safety zone, so a win would pull each side a step closer to escaping the lower half of the table.

Roma come into this tie on an unbeaten eight-match run, recording five wins and three draws. Their most recent results are a 0-0 draw away at Como, a 2-2 stalemate with Inter at home, a 2-0 victory over Torino away, a 1-1 draw with Fenerbahçe away, a 2-1 win against Atalanta at home and a 4-0 thrashing of Lecce away. The last two home games have been wins, the only home draw coming against Inter, so they have not lost at the Olimpico in this spell. In those eight matches Roma have scored 17 goals while conceding just four, keeping five clean sheets and being shut out only once. Four of the games produced three or more goals and in three of those both sides found the net.

Real Madrid arrive after a strong eight-match run of six wins and two defeats. Their latest fixtures are a 1-0 home win over Villarreal, a 2-1 away loss to Atlético Madrid, a 3-2 victory at Elche, a 4-1 home triumph over Vallecano, a 2-1 win against Inter at home and a 1-0 defeat away at Betis. On the road they have one win and two losses in the last three trips. Across the eight games they have netted 19 times and allowed seven, keeping three clean sheets and being held scoreless once. The most recent away loss to Atlético Madrid was a narrow 2-1 defeat, showing they can score but also that a single goal can decide the outcome.

Our pick is Roma or a draw at odds of 1.80. The price is longer than our own reading of the game, giving us a safety net if the match ends level. Roma have the statistical edge, with a higher expected goal tally (1.6 versus 1.2) and a 79 % chance of scoring at all compared with Real’s 70 %. They have also been solid at home, conceding only one goal in their last three matches there. For the pick to fail, Real would need to break through Roma’s defence and score twice, turning the game into a win for the visitors. If the match stays tight and Roma manage at least a point, the selection should pay off.