What to expect
We expect about 1.6 goals from Roma and 1.3 from Real Madrid, so Roma come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Roma to win. Roma are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.6-1.3), and we make them about 44% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 42 out of 100. The price on offer is 3.81, which works out at about 26 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
What the numbers say
✓Roma are unbeaten in their last five — four wins and one draw.
✓Real Madrid have won four of their last five.
