What to expect
We expect about 1.1 goals from Shakhtar Donetsk and 1.6 from AEK, so AEK come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
AEK come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: AEK to win. AEK shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.1-1.6), and we make them about 50% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 48 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.71, which works out at about 37 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
