Shakhtar Donetsk v AEK: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.7 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made AEK or Draw 78%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.0 goals from Shakhtar Donetsk and 1.7 from AEK, so AEK come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.

Shakhtar Donetsk come into this on three straight wins. AEK come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: AEK or Draw. This covers AEK or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.

We put the chance of that landing at about 78 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.48, which works out at about 68 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.