How it turned out
We projected about 3.7 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Stuttgart to win 69%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.0 goals from Slovan Bratislava and 2.6 from Stuttgart, so Stuttgart come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.7 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Stuttgart to win. Stuttgart shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.1-2.7), and we make them about 70% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 69 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.36, which works out at about 74 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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