What to expect
We expect about 2.0 goals from Sporting CP and 1.1 from Galatasaray, so Sporting CP come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Sporting CP come into this on two straight wins. Galatasaray come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Sporting CP to win. Sporting CP are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.0-1.1), and we make them about 62% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 62 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.00, which works out at about 50 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Galatasaray to spoil this. We make it about 62%: a lean, not a lock.
