How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Villarreal or Draw 69%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.6 goals from Villarreal and 1.3 from Napoli, so Villarreal come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Villarreal or Draw. This covers Villarreal or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 69 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.35, which works out at about 74 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
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