How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Both teams to score 59%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
The game looks fairly even in terms of chances. Birmingham are playing at home and have a mixed recent run – one win, one draw and one loss in their last three league matches. Southampton have been a bit more erratic away, with two wins and three defeats in their last five. The goal expectations are close, with Birmingham at about 1.3 and Southampton a touch higher at 1.6, so we can expect a modest amount of attacking play from both sides. It does not look like a defensive slog, but also not a free-scoring showcase.
Looking back, neither side has been on a long streak of clean sheets. Birmingham’s recent results show they can both score and concede, while Southampton’s five-game run includes three losses, suggesting they have let goals in as often as they have found the net. The pattern points to both teams being capable of hitting the back of the net on the day, rather than one side dominating completely.
Our pick is both teams to score. Both clubs have enough threat to find the net – roughly a goal and a half each on average – and the chance of both sides scoring sits at about 59 %. The price of 1.67 matches our view of the game, so we think it is a fair offer.
It would only go wrong if the match turns into a tight defensive battle and neither side manages to break through. A single clean-sheet performance from either side would kill the pick. We are reasonably confident in our view, but we know football can be unpredictable, so we keep the belief at a moderate level.
Recent results
Southampton have won three of the last four meetings, with one drawn.
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