What to expect
We expect about 1.3 goals from Portsmouth and 1.4 from Derby, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.3-1.4), and we make both teams to score about 57%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
We put the chance of that landing at about 57 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.83, which works out at about 55 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
One well-drilled defence, or a game that turns one-sided, and this is gone. Even on our own read it's closer to a coin-flip than a sure thing — about 57%.
