Lincoln v Blackburn: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.3 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Under 2.5 goals 50%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

The game looks very even. Both teams are expected to score just over one goal each, so the total should be around two and a half. There is almost nothing separating them in the numbers we have, so we expect a tight contest rather than a free-flowing affair.

Lincoln have come into this match on two wins in a row, while Blackburn have lost their last two league games. In their recent three games each, Lincoln have two victories and one loss, whereas Blackburn have one win and two defeats. The pattern suggests Lincoln have a little more momentum, but the gap is small and both sides have shown they can be stopped.

We are backing the Under 2.5 goals. The expected 2.3 goals in the game means the total will stay under the 2.5 line more often than not, roughly 52 % of the time. The price of 1.92 sits close to our own view of the match, so it looks good to us.

For the pick to fail we would need both teams to find the net twice, turning a cagey game into a higher-scoring one. That would require clear chances to be created, which looks unlikely given the recent form and the low goal expectations. We hold our view fairly strongly, but we accept there is a reasonable chance it could go the other way.