Blackburn v Millwall: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.1 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Under 3.5 goals 73%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

Blackburn host Millwall at EFL Championship level on 12 September 2026. Blackburn sit 15th in the 24-team table with eight points from seven games, level on goal difference with the teams above and below them. Millwall are a little higher, 12th with nine points from six games, also on a zero goal difference. Both clubs are mid-table and only a few points separate them from the places above and below, so a win would move each side a step up the ladder while a loss would see them slip further down. The two sides are almost evenly matched on the numbers we have, pointing to a tight contest.

Blackburn’s recent form has been mixed. In their last eight matches they have won two, drawn two and lost four. The most recent results are a 2-1 home loss to Sheffield United, a 2-1 away defeat at Preston, a 0-0 draw away at Lincoln, and a 2-1 home loss to QPR. Before that they beat Middlesbrough 2-1 at home and drew 2-2 with Wolves away. In those eight games Blackburn have scored ten and let in eleven. They have kept only one clean sheet and have failed to find the net in two games. Four of the eight fixtures featured three or more goals and both sides scored in six of them. The team played just four days ago, so they are coming in on a short turnaround.

Millwall have been a bit brighter in their last eight outings, with four wins, one draw and three defeats. Their latest results are a 1-0 home loss to Newcastle United, a 4-0 home win over Bolton, a 3-0 home loss to Wrexham, and a heavy 5-1 away defeat to Southampton. Prior to that they beat Norwich 3-0 at home and won 2-0 away at Bristol City. In those eight games Millwall have scored thirteen and conceded ten. They have kept four clean sheets and have been shut out twice. Four of the matches produced three or more goals and both teams scored in two of those. Like Blackburn, Millwall also played four days ago, so fatigue could be a factor for both sides.

The two clubs have met five times before. Blackburn have won three of those meetings, Millwall one and there has been one draw. The games have averaged 2.6 goals, and the most recent encounter ended 2-1 to Blackburn on 14 March 2026. Given the similar goal averages and the recent defensive records, this fixture looks set to be a cagey affair with few clear-cut chances. Both sides have shown they can score but also that they can be shut out, so a low-scoring, tightly contested match is the most likely scenario.

We back the under 3.5 goals. Our expectation is about 2.1 goals in total, roughly one for each side. The price of 1.37 matches our view of the game. The chance of the result staying under 3.5 goals is about 73 %. For the pick to go wrong, both teams would need to open up and produce three or more goals each, which seems unlikely given the recent clean sheets and the short recovery time. We think the price is right and the game will stay below the line.