How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Over 1.5 goals 69%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.3 goals from Derby and 1.1 from Birmingham, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Derby come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Over 1.5 goals. This does not need a goal rush: we make it around 2.4 goals (xG 1.3-1.1), and two is enough to land it, landing about 72% of the time on these numbers.
We put the chance of that landing at about 69 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.36, which works out at about 74 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
The last four meetings are split 1-1, with two drawn.
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