Bristol City v Lincoln: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.2 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Both teams to score 53%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

Bristol City host Lincoln at Ashton Gate on 15 September. City sit 11th in the 24-team Championship with 10 points from six games and a –1 goal difference. Lincoln are 16th, also on eight points and a –1 goal difference. The two clubs are only a few places apart, with Stoke City just above City and Norwich just below, while Blackburn sit just ahead of Lincoln and Watford level with them. Both sides are fighting to climb out of the lower half, so a point will be valuable for either club.

City have played eight games in total, winning four, drawing one and losing three. Their most recent results are a 4-1 loss away to Southampton, a 1-0 defeat at home to Newcastle United, a 2-1 away win over Burnley, a 3-1 win at Preston, a 2-1 home victory over Portsmouth and a 2-2 draw away at Birmingham. In those eight matches they have scored 12 and let in 12. They have kept only one clean sheet and have failed to score in two games. Five of the fixtures featured three or more goals and both sides scored in five of them. The last two results were defeats, and the team played just three days ago, so fatigue could be a factor.

Lincoln’s last eight outings have produced three wins, two draws and three losses. Their latest games are a 1-0 away win at Preston, a 4-0 loss away to AFC Bournemouth, a 1-1 home draw with Southampton, a 0-0 home stalemate with Blackburn, a 1-0 win away at Bolton and a 3-1 home loss to Portsmouth. On the road in their last five matches they have won three, lost two and drawn none. They have scored seven and conceded ten in the eight-game run, keeping four clean sheets while failing to find the net twice. Like City, they also played three days ago, so the short turnaround will affect both sides.

When the two clubs have met before, the games have tended to produce goals at both ends. The recent form of both teams shows a pattern of matches with three or more goals and both sides scoring in half of those games. Given the similar goal differences and the fact that each side has shown the ability to score and to concede, we expect another open encounter rather than a defensive shut-out.

Our pick is both teams to score. Both clubs average just over a goal per game – 1.2 for City and 1.0 for Lincoln – and the chance of each side finding the net is reasonably high. The price of 1.76 is shorter than our own reading, which gives a 53 % chance of the bet succeeding. It looks like a good price if the game stays open and both teams manage to break the deadlock. It would go wrong if one side dominates and keeps a clean sheet, or if the short rest leaves either team too sluggish to create chances.