What to expect
We expect about 1.5 goals from Middlesbrough and 1.1 from Millwall, so Middlesbrough come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.5-1.1), and we make both teams to score about 53%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
We put the chance of that landing at about 53 out of 100. There is no settled price to hold that up against yet, so treat the call on its own terms.
What the numbers say
✓Middlesbrough have won two of their last five.
✓Millwall have won two of their last five.
✓Three of the last five meetings had three goals or more.
✓Both teams scored in two of the last five meetings.
Recent meetings
3 Apr 2026Middlesbrough 1 - 2 Millwall
16 Aug 2025Millwall 0 - 3 Middlesbrough
12 Apr 2025Millwall 1 - 0 Middlesbrough
14 Dec 2024Middlesbrough 1 - 0 Millwall
13 Jan 2024Millwall 1 - 3 Middlesbrough
