Sheffield United v Wolves: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 4.0 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Sheffield United to score 78%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

Sheffield United host Wolves at Bramall Lane on 13 September. United sit 14th in the 24-team Championship with nine points from seven games and a goal difference of minus one. Wolves are much higher, seventh with eleven points from six games and a plus-four goal difference, sitting in the European-places zone. The two clubs are separated by only two places and a single point, so both will be keen to move up the table. A win for United would lift them above Blackburn Rovers, while a victory for Wolves would keep them ahead of Charlton Athletic.

United’s recent form has been mixed. In their last eight matches they have won three, drawn three and lost two. The most recent results are a 2-1 away win over Blackburn, a 3-1 home defeat by Norwich, a 3-2 home win over Bolton, a 2-2 draw away at Cardiff, a 0-0 draw away at Swansea and a 0-0 draw at home to Birmingham. In those eight games United have scored twelve and let in twelve, kept two clean sheets and have been shut out twice. Six of the games featured three or more goals and both sides scored in six of them.

Wolves have also been inconsistent. Over their last eight outings they have won two, drawn four and lost two. Their latest fixtures are a 2-2 draw away at Birmingham, a 4-2 loss away to West Ham, a 4-1 home win over Stoke, a 3-1 away win at Preston, a 2-2 home draw with Blackburn and a 1-1 away draw with Burnley. In those eight games Wolves have scored fifteen and conceded fifteen, failing to find the net only once. Seven of the matches produced three or more goals and both teams scored in seven of them. Their last road game was a week ago.

The two clubs have split their recent head-to-head meetings, each winning once with no draws. The most recent encounter was a 1-0 win for Wolves at Sheffield United on 25 February 2024. Those two games averaged two goals, suggesting a relatively low-scoring affair but still enough chances for both sides.

We pick Sheffield United to score. The chance United find the net is high – 86 % – and our own view puts the likelihood at 78 %. The price of 1.37 is longer than we think the game deserves, making it attractive. For the pick to fail United would have to be shut out, which would require a very tight defensive display from Wolves, something that has not been common in either team’s recent games. If United do score, even a loss still wins the bet, so we feel comfortable with this selection.