How it turned out
We projected about 2.3 goals and the game finished with 2.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Bristol City and 1.2 from Millwall, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. Low-scoring lean. The model projects about 2.3 in total.
We put the chance of that landing at about 78 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.35, which works out at about 74 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
Cagey games can burst open late, and a couple of goals in the closing stages would be enough to catch this out.
