How it turned out
We projected about 2.3 goals and the game finished with 2.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Bristol City and 1.2 from Millwall, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. Low-scoring lean. The model projects about 2.3 in total.
We put the chance of that landing at about 75 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.35, which works out at about 74 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
What the numbers say
✓Bristol City have won one of their last five.
✓Millwall are unbeaten in their last five — three wins and two draws.
✓Three of the last five meetings finished under 2.5 goals.
✓Both teams scored in two of the last five meetings.
Recent results
29 Dec 2025Millwall 2 - 1 Bristol City
6 Dec 2025Bristol City 0 - 1 Millwall
4 Mar 2025Millwall 0 - 2 Bristol City
17 Aug 2024Bristol City 4 - 3 Millwall
1 Jan 2024Bristol City 0 - 1 Millwall
Millwall have won three of the last five meetings.
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