What to expect
We expect about 1.1 goals from Watford and 1.9 from Southampton, so Southampton come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Southampton to win. Southampton shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.1-1.9), and we make them about 58% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 58 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.15, which works out at about 47 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Watford a draw or better. Even on our own read it's closer to a coin-flip than a sure thing — about 58%.
