How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Watford and 1.9 from Southampton, so Southampton come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Watford come into this on five straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Southampton (Draw No Bet). Southampton favoured (xG 1.1-1.8); a draw refunds your stake.
We put the chance of that landing at about 71 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.57, which works out at about 64 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent meetings
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