What to expect
We expect about 2.0 goals from Cardiff and 1.5 from Burnley, so Cardiff come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.5 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 2.0-1.5), and we make both teams to score about 63%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
We put the chance of that landing at about 63 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.47, which works out at about 68 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Burnley have won three of the last four meetings, with one drawn.
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