What to expect
We expect about 1.4 goals from Derby and 1.1 from West Brom, so Derby come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.4-1.1), and we make both teams to score about 52%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
We put the chance of that landing at about 52 out of 100. There is no settled price to hold that up against yet, so treat the call on its own terms.
What the numbers say
✓Derby have won one of their last five.
✓West Brom have won two of their last five.
✓Three of the last five meetings finished under 2.5 goals.
✓Both teams scored in three of the last five meetings.
Recent meetings
23 Jan 2026Derby 1 - 1 West Brom
13 Sept 2025West Brom 0 - 1 Derby
21 Apr 2025West Brom 1 - 3 Derby
26 Dec 2024Derby 2 - 1 West Brom
27 Dec 2021Derby 1 - 0 West Brom
