What to expect
We expect about 1.4 goals from Norwich and 1.1 from Birmingham, so Norwich come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.4-1.1), and we make both teams to score about 51%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
We put the chance of that landing at about 51 out of 100. There is no settled price to hold that up against yet, so treat the call on its own terms.
What the numbers say
✓Norwich have won two of their last five.
✓Birmingham have won one of their last five.
✓Three of the last five meetings had three goals or more.
✓Both teams scored in three of the last five meetings.
Recent meetings
21 Feb 2026Norwich 1 - 2 Birmingham
22 Nov 2025Birmingham 4 - 1 Norwich
4 May 2024Birmingham 1 - 0 Norwich
30 Sept 2023Norwich 2 - 0 Birmingham
21 Feb 2023Norwich 3 - 1 Birmingham
