What to expect
We expect about 1.5 goals from Swansea and 1.0 from Watford, so Swansea come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.4 goals in total (xG 1.5-1.0), keeping it under more often than not (about 54%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 54 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.92, which works out at about 52 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
It only takes one early goal to change how both sides play, and a low total can unravel in a single quick spell. We make it about 54% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
