How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Over 1.5 goals 71%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
The game looks fairly open. Swansea are the stronger side on the numbers we have, with an expectation of about 1.5 goals compared with Watford’s 0.9. The total we expect is around 2.4 goals, so there should be enough chances for both teams to find the net. It isn’t a defensive stalemate, but it isn’t a goal-fest either – just enough space for a couple of scores.
Watford have struggled lately. In their last five league games, whether at home or away, they have not won a single match, drawing two and losing three. That run shows they are finding it hard to score and keep clean sheets. Swansea’s recent numbers suggest they are more likely to get on the scoresheet, and the pattern points to a match where at least one goal will come from each side.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals. The price is 1.30, which is shorter than we feel the game deserves, so it looks attractive. With an expected total of about 2.4 goals, getting just two goals is enough to win the bet, and the chance of that happening sits around 71 out of 100.
For the bet to fail, the game would have to stay very tight, with either a 0-0 or a 1-0 result. That would require both sides to miss most chances, which seems unlikely given Swansea’s edge and Watford’s recent inability to win. We are fairly confident in our view and hold it strongly.
Recent results
Swansea have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
The odds and results data behind this preview cost money every day it runs. If it was worth reading, you can help keep it free. Support us →
