What to expect
We expect about 2.1 goals from Middlesbrough and 1.3 from Cardiff, so Middlesbrough come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.4 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Over 2.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 3.4 goals between the two (xG 2.1-1.3), landing about 61% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 59 out of 100. There is no settled price to hold that up against yet, so treat the call on its own terms.
What the numbers say
✓Middlesbrough are unbeaten in their last five — three wins and two draws.
✓Cardiff have won one of their last five.
✓Three of the last five meetings finished under 2.5 goals.
✓Both teams scored in three of the last five meetings.
Recent meetings
4 Jan 2025Middlesbrough 1 - 1 Cardiff
31 Aug 2024Cardiff 0 - 2 Middlesbrough
27 Apr 2024Cardiff 1 - 4 Middlesbrough
3 Oct 2023Middlesbrough 2 - 0 Cardiff
11 Feb 2023Cardiff 1 - 3 Middlesbrough
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