How it turned out
We projected about 3.3 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Southampton to win 59%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.1 goals from Southampton and 1.1 from Bristol City, so Southampton come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Bristol City come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Southampton to win. Southampton are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.1-1.1), and we make them about 61% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 59 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.71, which works out at about 58 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Bristol City have won two of the last four meetings, with one drawn.
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