How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Portsmouth to score 1 or fewer 77%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.0 goals from Southampton and 1.1 from Portsmouth, so Southampton come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Portsmouth come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Portsmouth to score 1 or fewer. This is about Portsmouth's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.0 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 77%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 77 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.31, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
All two of the last meetings were drawn.
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