What to expect
We expect about 1.2 goals from Stoke and 1.3 from Norwich, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Stoke come into this on two straight defeats. Norwich come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This one is tight against the line: we make it around 2.5 goals (xG 1.2-1.3) and it takes three to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 53%). A close call rather than a comfortable one.
We put the chance of that landing at about 53 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.00, which works out at about 50 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
It only takes one early goal to change how both sides play, and a low total can unravel in a single quick spell. Even on our own read it's closer to a coin-flip than a sure thing — about 53%.
