Stoke v Norwich: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.6 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Both teams to score 53%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

Stoke host Norwich in a Championship clash that looks fairly even. The numbers give Stoke about 1.2 goals and Norwich about 1.4, so the total is just under three goals. Norwich are a touch stronger on paper, but the gap is small. Expect a game that can go either way, with chances for both sides.

Norwich have been mixed in their last five league outings, winning two, drawing one and losing two. They are coming in on the back of two straight wins, which should give them confidence. Stoke’s recent form isn’t listed, so we can only rely on the goal averages. The recent pattern suggests Norwich can score but also can be held back, while Stoke have enough firepower to find the net themselves.

We think both teams will score. Each side averages more than a goal, and the price of 1.67 looks attractive compared with our view of the game. We put the chance of both sides hitting the net at about 53 out of 100. It should be a match with chances at both ends rather than a clean sheet for either team.

For this to go wrong, one side would need to shut out the other – a solid defence or a very poor finish. If Norwich dominate and keep a clean sheet, or if Stoke struggle to create, the bet would fail. We feel fairly confident in our view, but we know football can be unpredictable.