How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Over 1.5 goals 72%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from Swansea and 1.1 from Burnley, so Swansea come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Over 1.5 goals. This does not need a goal rush: we make it around 2.6 goals (xG 1.4-1.1), and two is enough to land it, landing about 74% of the time on these numbers.
We put the chance of that landing at about 72 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.30, which works out at about 77 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Burnley have won four of the last four meetings.
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