How it turned out
We projected about 2.3 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Over 1.5 goals 70%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.3 goals from Watford and 1.0 from Stoke, so Watford come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Over 1.5 goals. This does not need a goal rush: we make it around 2.3 goals (xG 1.3-1.0), and two is enough to land it, landing about 72% of the time on these numbers.
We put the chance of that landing at about 70 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.30, which works out at about 77 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Watford have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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