West Ham v Wrexham: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.4 goals; the game finished with 6. We made Both teams to score 61%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

West Ham host Wrexham at their ground on 11 September in the Championship. West Ham sit top of the 24-team table with 14 points from seven matches and a +11 goal difference. One point separates them from West Bromwich Albion in second place. Wrexham are down in 16th, also on seven points but with a –4 goal difference. Stoke City sit just above them and Portsmouth just below, so a win would lift Wrexham a spot and keep West Ham clear at the summit. The numbers suggest West Ham are the stronger side, but the expected total of 3.4 goals points to an open game with chances for both clubs.

West Ham have been inconsistent but have finished their last eight games with three wins, two draws and three defeats. Their most recent fixtures were a 3-0 win over Derby at home, a 4-2 victory against Wolves at home and a 1-1 draw with Watford away. Before that they lost 2-1 to Charlton at home, drew 2-2 with Burnley away and beat Leeds 3-0 at home. In those eight outings they have scored 15 and let in 11. They kept two clean sheets and were held scoreless once. Five of the eight games saw both sides find the net, and six featured three or more goals. The last two matches have both been wins, and they played six days ago.

Wrexham’s form has been more subdued. In their last eight games they have recorded one win, five draws and two defeats. Their recent results are a 1-1 draw with Burnley at home, a 0-0 stalemate with Swansea away, a 3-0 win over Millwall away, a 2-1 loss to Birmingham at home, a 1-1 draw with Watford at home and a 1-1 draw with Cardiff away. They have scored ten and conceded ten in that span, kept two clean sheets and failed to score once. Six of those games saw both teams score, and four had three or more goals. Wrexham come into this match after two consecutive draws and only three days after their last game, so they have a short turnaround.

When the two clubs have met before the games have tended to produce goals at both ends. The recent patterns for both sides show a high proportion of matches with three or more goals and many where both teams score. With West Ham averaging 1.8 goals and Wrexham 1.6, the fixture is likely to follow that trend. We expect an open contest rather than a defensive shut-out, with chances for either side to break the deadlock.

Our pick is that both teams will score. The price of 1.75 is longer than our own reading of the game, but we think the chance of both sides finding the net is about 61 per cent. The price looks good for that probability. For the pick to fail, the game would have to end in a clean sheet for either side – a 0-0 draw or a win where one team keeps a shut-out. Given the recent goal-rich history of both clubs, that seems unlikely.