Wolves v West Brom: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.1 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Over 1.5 goals 74%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

Wolves host West Brom in a Championship clash at the end of September. Both clubs sit in the league’s top six, with Wolves in fourth and West Brom in fifth. They are level on points – 14 each – but Wolves have played one game fewer, so the gap is razor-thin. A win for either side could lift them into the European places, while a slip would see the other move ahead. The table shows Wolves one spot above West Brom and just a point behind Middlesbrough, while Queens Park Rangers sit a point behind the visitors. Both teams are keen to pull away from the pack.

Wolves have been fairly steady in their last eight outings, winning three, drawing four and losing once. Their most recent result was a 1-0 win away at Sheffield United. Before that they drew 2-2 with Birmingham away, suffered a 4-2 defeat to West Ham away, and then beat Stoke 4-1 at home. Earlier they edged Preston 3-1 away and shared a 2-2 draw with Blackburn at home. In those eight games Wolves have scored 16 goals and let in 12, keeping just one clean sheet. Five of the matches featured three or more goals and both sides found the net in seven of them. At home the Wolves have not lost in three games, recording one win and two draws.

West Brom’s form over their last eight fixtures shows four wins, two draws and two losses. Their latest outing was a 1-1 draw with QPR at home, before a 1-0 victory away at Derby and another 1-0 win at home over Watford. They also drew 1-1 with Charlton at home, lost 3-1 away to Middlesbrough, and beat Burnley 3-1 at home. The visitors have not been beaten in their last four games, though on the road they have won two and lost two. In total they have scored 11 and conceded 9, keeping two clean sheets. Six of those eight matches saw both teams score, and four games produced three or more goals. Their most recent draw with QPR was a tight 1-1 affair, showing they can hold their own while still finding the net.

When these two sides meet, the games have tended to be open and high-scoring. In the recent runs both clubs have been involved in matches with three or more goals and both have often seen the opposition score. The statistics suggest an attacking balance: Wolves have an 84 % chance of scoring at least once and a 55 % chance of scoring twice or more, while West Brom have a 68 % chance of getting on the scoresheet and a 32 % chance of netting twice. The expected tally sits at about 2.0 goals for Wolves and 1.1 for West Brom, roughly 3.1 goals in total. That points to a game where chances will come from both ends.

Our pick is over 1.5 goals. The price of 1.30 is shorter than we feel the game deserves, making it an attractive offer. With both teams averaging more than a goal per game and a history of matches with multiple scores, we see a 74 % chance that the total will exceed one and a half goals. For the pick to go wrong, both sides would need to tighten up dramatically, each keeping a clean sheet or scoring only once, which does not match the recent patterns. All signs point to an open encounter with several goals, so we back the over.