Lincoln v Swansea: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 1.9 goals; the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Under 3.5 goals 72%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.0 goals from Lincoln and 0.9 from Swansea, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 1.9 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.

Lincoln come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.0 goals in total (xG 1.0-1.0), keeping it under more often than not (about 74%). Clear chances should be at a premium.

We put the chance of that landing at about 72 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.34, which works out at about 75 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.