How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Burnley to score 2 or fewer 76%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.5 goals from Burnley and 1.2 from Derby, so Burnley come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Derby come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Burnley to score 2 or fewer. This is about Burnley's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.5 on the day, and the bet wants them to 2 or fewer, which we make about 76%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 76 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.30, which works out at about 77 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
All two of the last meetings were drawn.
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