How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Both teams to score 59%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.3 goals from Birmingham and 1.3 from Middlesbrough, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.3-1.3), and we make both teams to score about 59%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
We put the chance of that landing at about 59 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.58, which works out at about 63 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Middlesbrough have won five of the last five meetings.
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