What to expect
We expect about 1.2 goals from Birmingham and 1.3 from Middlesbrough, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.2-1.3), and we make both teams to score about 55%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
We put the chance of that landing at about 55 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.69, which works out at about 59 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
What the numbers say
✓Birmingham have won two of their last five.
✓Middlesbrough have won three of their last five.
✓Three of the last five meetings had three goals or more.
✓Both teams scored in three of the last five meetings.
Recent meetings
2 Mar 2026Birmingham 1 - 3 Middlesbrough
8 Nov 2025Middlesbrough 2 - 1 Birmingham
12 Mar 2024Birmingham 0 - 1 Middlesbrough
21 Oct 2023Middlesbrough 1 - 0 Birmingham
2 Jan 2023Birmingham 1 - 3 Middlesbrough
