How it turned out
We projected about 3.5 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Under 4.5 goals 82%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
The game looks fairly even on paper. Chengdu Rongcheng are a little stronger than Liaoning Tieren, but the numbers show both teams will have chances. It should be an open match with chances at both ends.
Both sides have been inconsistent lately. In their last five league games each, Chengdu have managed one win, two draws and two defeats, while Liaoning have the same record. Liaoning come in on two straight draws, so neither side is on a hot streak.
We pick the Under 4.5 goals. The price is 1.38, which is longer than what we think the game will produce, so it looks attractive. Our own view is that the total will be around three goals, with Chengdu scoring about two and Liaoning about one.
For the pick to fail we would need a very high-scoring game, five goals or more. That would require both teams to be unusually wasteful in front of goal. We are fairly confident in our view and think the chance of the pick working is about 84 out of 100.
Recent meetings
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