How it turned out
We projected about 2.2 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Under 3.5 goals 77%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Henan Songshan Longmen look the stronger side in this Chinese Super League clash. The numbers suggest they will score a little more than their visitors, about one and a half goals compared with just under one for Chongqing Tonglianglong. The expected total is just over two goals, so the game should be fairly tight rather than a free-flowing affair.
Both teams have struggled recently. In their last five league outings Henan have managed only one win, three draws and one loss. Chongqing have been even less fortunate, with no wins, one draw and four defeats. The recent form points to a match where neither side is likely to dominate, reinforcing the idea of a low-scoring encounter.
We are backing the Under 3.5 goals. The price of 1.34 is longer than what we feel the game will produce, which makes the pick attractive. With an expected total of about 2.2 goals and a 79 % chance of staying under 3.5, the odds give us a good cushion.
The only way this could go wrong is if both teams suddenly find a lot of clear chances and the match opens up, pushing the total above three goals. That would require a big shift in how they play, which looks unlikely given their recent results. Our view is fairly strong, but we recognise a surprise could still happen.
Recent meetings
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