How it turned out
We projected about 4.1 goals; the game finished with 6. We made Under 4.5 goals 74%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Zhejiang Professional look a little stronger than Yunnan Yukun on paper. Our goal estimates give Zhejiang about 2.2 goals and Yunnan about 1.9, so we expect both teams to have chances. The numbers point to an open game where attacks will happen at both ends.
In the last five league games Zhejiang have only managed one win, two draws and two defeats, and they are coming in on two straight draws. Yunnan have been better recently with three wins, one draw and one loss. In the three meetings between the sides, Zhejiang have won twice, Yunnan not at all and one game ended in a draw. Those games have averaged three goals, and the most recent meeting ended 2-1 to Zhejiang.
We think the safest choice is to back the Under 4.5 goals. The price of 1.49 is longer than what we see in the match, which is why we like it. Our own view puts the total around 4.1 goals, so the line is a little high and the bet should win about 76 times out of 100.
The pick would fail if the game turns into a goal-fest, with both sides scoring more than we expect. If the total reaches five or more, we lose. We are fairly confident in our view, but we know it is a close call rather than a sure thing.
Recent meetings
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