How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Atalanta to win 72%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.1 goals from Atalanta and 0.6 from Pafos, so Atalanta come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Atalanta to win. Atalanta are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.1-0.5), and we make them about 74% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 72 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.36, which works out at about 74 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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