What to expect
We expect about 2.1 goals from Atalanta and 0.9 from Pafos, so Atalanta come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Atalanta to win. Atalanta are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.1-0.9), and we make them about 67% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 65 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.37, which works out at about 73 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
Pafos only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. The price is shorter than our own read of about 67%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
