Panathinaikos v Borac Banja Luka: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.2 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Panathinaikos or Draw 78%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Panathinaikos host Borac Banja Luka in the UEFA Conference League on 15 October. Both clubs sit at the very bottom of their groups, each with zero points after no games have been played, so the opening round is a chance to get ahead. Panathinaikos are 31st of 36, just above Pafos FC and ahead of Riga FC. Borac Banja Luka sit fourth, with Atalanta one place above and Braga one below. The points are all level, but the numbers we have suggest Panathinaikos are the stronger side, and a win or a draw would put them in a good position early on.

Panathinaikos come into this match on a strong eight-game run that includes six wins, one draw and one loss. Their most recent result was a 1-0 defeat away to Olympiakos, but before that they beat Kalamata 1-0 away, Kifisia FC 2-0 away, Panetolikos 3-0 at home, Kifisia 3-1 at home and PAOK 3-1 at home. In those eight games they have scored 16 goals and let in only five, keeping four clean sheets while being shut out just once. At home they have been especially solid, winning three and drawing one in their last four fixtures. The side played only four days ago, so they will be on a short turnaround.

Borac Banja Luka arrive on the back of four straight wins in their last eight games, five wins and three draws overall with no defeats. Their most recent outings are a 2-0 home win over BSK Banja Luka, a 3-2 away victory at Široki Brijeg and a 2-1 away win over Sloga Doboj. Before that they beat Zrinjski Mostar 1-0 at home, drew 1-1 with Rapid Vienna at home and held Olimpija Ljubljana 0-0 away. In those eight matches they have scored ten and conceded four, keeping five clean sheets and failing to find the net twice. Their last three road games have been two wins and a draw, and they played five days ago, giving them a little more rest than the hosts.

When the two clubs have met before, the games have tended to be low-scoring affairs with both sides finding the net in about half of the encounters. The current expectations line up with that pattern: we expect a total of just over two goals, with Panathinaikos likely to score once and Borac Banja Luka less than one. The chance of Panathinaikos scoring at all is high at 75 %, while Borac Banja Luka’s chance sits at 56 %. Both teams have shown the ability to keep clean sheets, so a tight, possibly one-goal game looks probable.

We back Panathinaikos or a draw. The price of 1.05 is shorter than what we feel the game is worth, giving us a safety net if the visitors manage to hold the hosts. Our confidence in this choice is 78 % based on the recent form, the home advantage and the scoring probabilities. For this to go wrong, Panathinaikos would need to be shut out completely and Borac Banja Luka would have to score at least once, which the numbers suggest is less likely.