How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Lugano or Draw 69%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Lugano host FK Crvena Zvezda in the UEFA Conference League on 15 October. Both clubs sit on zero points after the opening round, but they are in very different parts of the table. Lugano are 27th of 36, just above Lincoln Red Imps and ahead of Mjällby. Crvena Zvezda sit 14th, with FC Twente a place above and FK Kauno Žalgiris below. The first match will set the tone for each side’s campaign and could give the early edge needed to climb out of the bottom half.
Lugano arrive on the back of three straight wins. In their last eight games they have won seven and drawn one, never losing. The most recent results are a 4-0 home victory over Luzern, a 4-0 away win at Lausanne, a 4-1 home triumph against St Gallen, a 2-2 draw with Young Boys at home, a 3-1 away success over Basel and a 1-0 home win over Servette. In those eight matches they have scored 25 goals and let in only five, keeping four clean sheets. Their last five home games contain four wins and a draw, and seven of the eight fixtures featured three or more goals, with both sides scoring in four of them.
Crvena Zvezda come in on four consecutive wins. Their last eight outings include a 3-0 away defeat of FK Radnički 1923, a 3-0 home win over Radnički Niš, a 2-1 away victory at Železničar Pančevo, a 1-0 away success against FK IMT Beograd, a 0-0 away draw with FK Radnik Surdulica and a 1-0 away win over Lille. They have not lost in any of those games. Over the same eight-match stretch they have scored 12 goals and conceded just two, keeping six clean sheets and failing to find the net only once. Their recent road form is especially strong, with five wins and a draw in the last six away games.
The numbers suggest a game with plenty of chances. We expect a total of three goals, with Lugano averaging 1.6 and Crvena Zvezda 1.4. Both teams have a high chance of scoring at least once – 80 % for Lugano and 74 % for the visitors. A goal-rich encounter is likely, and both sides have shown they can find the net while also protecting their defence. The pattern of recent matches points to an open contest rather than a defensive stalemate.
Our pick is Lugano or Draw at odds of 1.50. The price sits close to our reading of the game and gives us a safety net if the match ends level. We think Lugano’s home form and the higher scoring expectation give them the edge, but Crvena Zvezda’s recent away success means a draw is plausible. The pick should work if Lugano scores and either holds on or shares points. It would fail if Crvena Zvezda wins outright or if the game ends without goals. We feel the price is attractive for the risk involved.
Recent results
The odds and results data behind this preview cost money every day it runs. If it was worth reading, you can help keep it free. Support us →
