What to expect
We expect about 1.6 goals from Lugano and 1.5 from FK Crvena Zvezda, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Lugano come into this on three straight wins. FK Crvena Zvezda come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Lugano to win. Lugano are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.6-1.5), and we make them about 40% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 39 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.84, which works out at about 35 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
