What to expect
We expect about 1.7 goals from Gent and 1.3 from Aarhus, so Gent come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Gent come into this on five straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Gent to win. Gent are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.7-1.2), and we make them about 46% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 45 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.62, which works out at about 62 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
What the numbers say
✓Gent are unbeaten in their last five — five wins and no draws.
✓Aarhus have not won any of their last five.
