Hajduk Split v Ajax: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.1 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Ajax or Draw 66%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.5 goals from Hajduk Split and 1.6 from Ajax, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.

Ajax come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Ajax or Draw. This covers Ajax or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.

We put the chance of that landing at about 66 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.21, which works out at about 83 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.