What to expect
We expect about 1.4 goals from Hajduk Split and 1.6 from Ajax, so Ajax come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Hajduk Split come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Ajax to win. Ajax shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.4-1.6), and we make them about 44% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 42 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.88, which works out at about 53 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
What the numbers say
✓Hajduk Split are unbeaten in their last three — three wins and no draws.
✓Ajax have won three of their last five.
