What to expect
We expect about 2.4 goals from Brighton and 0.4 from FK Kauno Žalgiris, so Brighton come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Brighton to win. Brighton are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.3-0.4), and we make them about 81% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 79 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.04, which works out at about 96 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
What the numbers say
✓Brighton have won two of their last five.
✓FK Kauno Žalgiris are unbeaten in their last three — two wins and one draw.
