Riga FC v Kairat Almaty: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.0 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Riga FC (Draw No Bet) 77%, but the stake came back in full.

What we said beforehand

Riga FC host Kairat Almaty in the UEFA Conference League on 15 October 2026. Both clubs sit at the bottom of their groups with zero points and a neutral goal difference. Riga sit 32nd out of 36, just above St Truiden and below St Truiden, while Kairat are 24th, with Jablonec a place above and KuPS a place below. The match offers a chance to move out of the relegation-type zone and gain the first points of the campaign. On paper Riga look the stronger side, with an expected 2.1 goals to Kairat’s 0.9.

Riga have come into this game on three straight wins. Their last five results were a 2-0 win away at FK Tukums 2000, a 1-0 victory away at FK Jelgava, a 1-0 win away at SK Super Nova, a 2-2 draw at home against Auda and a 3-2 loss away to FK Liepaja. In those five games they have scored eight and let in five, keeping three clean sheets. Two of the matches produced three or more goals and both sides scored in each of those games. The most recent win was five days ago.

Kairat Almaty have struggled in their last eight outings, managing only two wins and six defeats. Their recent sequence reads: a 1-0 home win over Zhetysu Taldykorgan, a 1-0 loss away to FC Astana, a 4-1 defeat at home to Tobol Kostanay, a 3-0 home win over Zhenis, a 3-2 loss away to Arsenal and a 4-1 loss at home to Club Brugge KV. The last three trips have all ended in defeat. Over those eight games Kairat have scored ten and conceded sixteen, keeping two clean sheets while failing to find the net in two matches. Their most recent result, a 1-0 win at home five days ago, showed they can still win but only by the narrowest margin.

When the two clubs have met before, the games have tended to be open, with both sides getting on the scoresheet. The pattern fits the current data: Riga are likely to find the net, while Kairat have a lower chance of scoring at all. Expect a game with a few goals, perhaps a 2-1 or 3-1 scoreline, rather than a defensive stalemate. Riga’s recent clean sheets and winning run suggest they will try to dominate, while Kairat’s recent away losses hint they will be on the back foot.

We back Riga FC on a draw-no-bet basis. The price of 1.43 is longer than our own reading of the game, which gives Riga a strong chance of winning. Riga’s expected 2.1 goals versus Kairat’s 0.9, plus an 88 % chance they will score at all, make them the clear favourite. The draw-no-bet protects us if the match ends level, so only a Riga defeat would hurt. For the pick to go wrong, Kairat would need to keep a clean sheet and score at least once, or Riga would have to fail to score despite their high scoring probability. With a 77 % chance of success, we feel the pick is worth the risk.