Twente v Thun: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 4.0 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Twente to win 77%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 3.1 goals from Twente and 1.0 from Thun, so Twente come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 4.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.

Our pick: Twente to win. Twente are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 3.1-1.0), and we make them about 79% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.

We put the chance of that landing at about 77 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.24, which works out at about 81 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.