How it turned out
We projected about 3.5 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Dinamo Zagreb to win 78%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.7 goals from Dinamo Zagreb and 0.8 from NK Lokomotiva, so Dinamo Zagreb come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.5 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Dinamo Zagreb to win. Dinamo Zagreb are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.7-0.8), and we make them about 80% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 78 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.21, which works out at about 83 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Dinamo Zagreb have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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