How it turned out
We projected about 2.3 goals; the game finished with 1. We made NK Istra 1961 to win 47%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from NK Istra 1961 and 0.9 from HNK Gorica, so NK Istra 1961 come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: NK Istra 1961 to win. NK Istra 1961 are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.4-0.9), and we make them about 49% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 47 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.88, which works out at about 53 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
HNK Gorica have won four of the last five meetings.
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