How it turned out
We projected about 2.3 goals; the game finished with 0. We made NK Varaždin to win 46%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.3 goals from NK Varaždin and 0.9 from Osijek, so NK Varaždin come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: NK Varaždin to win. NK Varaždin are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.3-0.9), and we make them about 48% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 46 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.97, which works out at about 51 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
NK Varaždin have won three of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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