How it turned out
We projected about 2.3 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Rijeka to win 35%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.2 goals from Rijeka and 1.0 from Hajduk Split, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Hajduk Split come into this on five straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Rijeka to win. Rijeka are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.2-1.0), and we make them about 37% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 35 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.10, which works out at about 48 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Hajduk Split have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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