What to expect
We expect about 1.4 goals from Rudeš and 1.9 from Slaven, so Slaven come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Slaven to win. Slaven shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.4-1.9), and we make them about 49% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 47 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.89, which works out at about 53 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
What the numbers say
✓Rudeš have won one of their last three.
✓Slaven have won two of their last three.
