How it turned out
We projected about 3.3 goals and the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Slaven to win 47%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from Rudeš and 1.9 from Slaven, so Slaven come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Slaven to win. Slaven shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.4-1.9), and we make them about 49% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 47 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.99, which works out at about 50 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Slaven have won four of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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