Colwyn Bay v Cambrian United: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.6 goals; the game finished with 2. We made Colwyn Bay to win 68%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 2.5 goals from Colwyn Bay and 1.1 from Cambrian United, so Colwyn Bay come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.6 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.

Cambrian United come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Colwyn Bay to win. Colwyn Bay are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.5-1.1), and we make them about 70% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.

We put the chance of that landing at about 68 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.37, which works out at about 73 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.