Briton Ferry Llansawel v Llandudno FC: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.0 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Briton Ferry Llansawel or Draw 70%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.6 goals from Briton Ferry Llansawel and 1.4 from Llandudno FC, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.

Briton Ferry Llansawel come into this on two straight defeats. Llandudno FC come into this on five straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Briton Ferry Llansawel or Draw. This covers Briton Ferry Llansawel or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.

We put the chance of that landing at about 70 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.46, which works out at about 68 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.