What to expect
We expect about 1.3 goals from AEK Larnaca and 1.1 from Pafos FC, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
AEK Larnaca come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: AEK Larnaca to win. AEK Larnaca are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.2-1.1), and we make them about 41% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 40 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.35, which works out at about 43 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
