AEK Larnaca v Pafos FC: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.3 goals; the game finished with 1. We made AEK Larnaca to win 40%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.3 goals from AEK Larnaca and 1.1 from Pafos FC, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.

Our pick: AEK Larnaca to win. AEK Larnaca are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.3-1.1), and we make them about 41% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.

We put the chance of that landing at about 40 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.40, which works out at about 42 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.