How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals; the game finished with 6. Both teams scored. We made Olympiakos Nicosia to win 51%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.5 goals from Olympiakos Nicosia and 0.9 from Omonia 29 Maiou, so Olympiakos Nicosia come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Olympiakos Nicosia to win. Olympiakos Nicosia are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.5-0.9), and we make them about 53% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 51 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.10, which works out at about 48 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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